Which Cinderella Team is Most Likely to Make the Final Four?
March Madness has done what it does best: break brackets and break hearts. Round 2 of the NCAA tournament saw top dog Villanova get upset by an underrated, under-seeded Wisconsin team, then seeing #7 Michigan defeat #2 Louisville, followed by a quiet 25 point blow out by #11 seeded Xavier over #3 seed Florida State, as well as my Duke Blue Devils, a 2 seed, get upset by a 9th seeded South Carolina squad. For the past six years, the NCAA tournament has seen a team seeded #7 or higher make an appearance in the final four. So the question remains; which of these four Cinderella teams has the best chance to stun everyone and continue the trend of Cinderella teams making an appearance in the Final Four? (List is in order from least likely to make an appearance to most likely.)
#11 Xavier- Say what you will about Xavier, the team is consistent. They've made the NCAA tourney 11 out of the last 12 years, the lone season left out being 2013. During that span, they've appeared in the Sweet 16 six times, however, they've only been able to make it to the Elite 8 once (2008) and even then they were 3 seed. Led by junior guard Trevon Bluiett, who has been stellar for Xavier all season, the Musketeers are showing the world what they are made of. However, they face their toughest test of the season in the Sweet 16, going toe to toe with #2 seeded Arizona. Zona (in my bracket, I have them winning it all...) have been somewhat dominate in the early rounds, blowing out North Dakota and handling a good Saint Mary's team. Led by freshman stand out Lauri Markkanen, the PAC-12 conference champs look to once again end Xavier's season at the Sweet 16, and continue as a dominate force. While Xavier has already proved everyone wrong early, I don't see them getting past Arizona. Possibly the least talked about 2 seed, Arizona came out of a pretty competitive PAC-12 as the conference champions, and honestly, should have been given a one seed. However, Xavier has been playing sound basketball and they've already proven they can handle a high seeded team. Can Xavier finally get past the Sweet 16, or will they once again fall short to a top seed? Doubtful, but if March has taught me anything, it's that anything is possible.
#7 South Carolina- South Carolina got off to a good start this season, featuring two blowout wins to Michigan and Syracuse in the first few weeks of the season. They also got a nice win over Florida and had a nice run which consisted of them winning 10 out of 12 games before things got shaky. They finished the season losing six of the last nine, putting them in 4th in the SEC. Some gave them a chance against Marquette, but many soon wrote them off when they saw they would be playing a heavy favorite in the Duke Blue Devils. With a strong second half (scored 65 of their 88) and the strong play of senior guard Sindarius Thornwell (SEC Player of the Year) they managed to outlast Duke and break not only my bracket, but my heart. However, this to me was more of a bad game by Duke than it was a good game for South Carolina. Duke out shot SC from three, and was right with them in overall field goal percentage, but they got into foul trouble early (too many calls, on both ends of the floor) and a total of 18 team turnovers, yet the Gamecocks managed just 8 steals. I'm not just saying this because I'm a Duke fan and I'm butt hurt we lost. South Carolina deserved to win that game, they outplayed us in the second half, they have a very good very VERY underrated leader in Thornwell (21.4 PPG/7.3 RPG) a great coach in Frank Martin, and a good defense. However, as Virginia showed everyone, defense can only get you so far. If Thornwell suddenly can't make his shots, they don't have much to rely on. Baylor is a very beatable team, and a good match for the Gamecocks, but they are going to need Thornwell to come out firing.
#8 Wisconsin- Two words: under seeded. How in the world did Wisconsin get an 8 seed? With quality wins over teams like Michigan, Maryland, Minnesota, Northwestern and Marquette, as well as finishing second in the BIG-10 conference, finishing over both Maryland and Minnesota, both of whom were ranked higher than the Badgers. Alas, they were given a crap hand but made the most out of it. Having to face a tough Virginia Tech team in the first round, the road only got harder as they had to face top seeded Villanova in the round of 32. They managed to survive another game, just managing to surprise Nova thanks to the solid play of senior forward Nigel Hayes and senior guard Bronson Koenig, who have been the team leaders in the first two rounds of the tournament. The Badgers have the easiest route to the tournament out of all the Cinderella teams, seeing as the other teams face top three seeds in their respective region. However, it won't be as easy as it sounds for Wisconsin, unless they can get some sort of production from their bench. In their upset win over Nova, the Badgers used five bench players, three of whom played eight minutes or more, yet they only scored three points off the bench. Their win against VT, however, is a different story, as the bench scored 19 points in the win. While they may have an easy path to the Final Four, they need the bench to show up against a tough Florida Gators team if they want to make it to the Elite 8.
#7 Michigan- It's not really a surprise that Michigan made it this far, is it? They've been the hottest team in college basketball for the past two weeks. They held off Oklahoma State in the first round and managed to make a late run to upset #2 seed Louisville in the second round. With there next game coming against Oregon, Michigan can easily make an appearance in the Elite 8. They simply do not turn the ball over. Oregon is a good team led by the duo of forward Dillon Brooks and guard Tyler Dorsey, the Ducks COULD HAVE easily made it to the final four, had it not been for the injury to senior big man Chris Boucher. While they can still make it, they have to go thru a HOT Michigan team. This team has scorers everywhere, and when one player doesn't come to play, someone else steps up. Guard Derrick Walton Jr., the usual leader of this Michigan team, had a rough outing against Louisville, but was given a pass because of the stellar play by forwards Mortiz Wagner and D.J. Wilson (Wilson has been the go to man this far for Michigan during the tourney). If Michigan's big men can play like they did against Louisville, and Walton Jr. can step up, there isn't a team that can beat Michigan basketball right now. Look for them to not only make a run to the Final Four, but watch for them to make a run at the National Championship.
Hell, who knows, maybe all these teams will win and advance to the Elite 8. They all have the momentum and at this point, with everyone's bracket in the garbage, we're all routing for these teams to keep on pushing thru. Hell, maybe some of you have these teams winning in your bracket (I have Michigan in my Elite 8). While I can share my predications on what will happen and who I think will win, I think we all know no one can say who's going to win. It's simply madness.
